Peter Bergen of CNN would like to explain to you why U.S. Special Operations Forces sometimes do not succeed in freeing hostages. He says that the main reasons are a lack of current correct intelligence, and a failure to retain the element of surprise.
Well, no kidding, there, Enrico Fermi.
I feel like I just read twenty paragraphs of someone explaining that football teams lose games by not scoring more points than their opponents, with a few examples sprinkled in to illustrate the point. He apparently got his job by looking ruggedly handsome in a Banana Republic jacket and a shemagh, and not for his analytical skills.