Sunday, March 31, 2013

Things I wonder about...

Why does Kim Jong Un have three telephones on his desk? Are there three other people with phones in North Korea for him to call?

If there are, what is there to talk about?

"Still resolutely awaiting the treachery of the running dogs and lackeys of the Yankee imperialists with revolutionary fervor?"

"Yes, Glorious Commander!"

"Still keeping up the training of the 1-matches-100 valiant soldier?"

"Yes, Respected Comrade!"

"Sawdust and dirt clod rations prepared well this morning?"

"Yes, Maximum Leader!"

"Good."

*click*
Still, North Korea was a lot more risible before they had missiles. For much of the world, a conventional war on the Korean Peninsula would be like knocking over a cup of coffee on a table with a raised lip around the edge: you could be fairly certain that any spill, while messy, would remain fairly localised. Bluntly, (and absent a draft) for your typical western hemisphere type it'd mess up the delivery schedules for the Galaxy S4 and the Veloster Turbo, but life would go on.

But the Hermit Kingdom with nukes on missiles, even if they're only "intermediate-range" ones? I can't get this picture out of my head.

North Korea engages in so little conventional interaction with other nations that you have to wonder if they really understand the idea of what is considered acceptable behavior at the grownup table. Kim Il Sung's philosophy of "Juche" has created a nation where the national mindset makes the most ardent isolationist of a Bircher look like a frothing transnationalist one-worlder; armed with nukes,  the DPRK becomes the geopolitical equivalent of the profoundly autistic young man with the body of a linebacker and the emotional continence of a three-year-old.

51 comments:

  1. I find it depressing. Since the end of the Second World War, America has not had the will to do what is militarily necessary to enforce what we think is right on other countries.

    Somebody needs to step in and take control of the situation in North Korea, but I don't think our military would be given the direction to do what is required.

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  2. The Great and Powerful Oz,

    "the will to do what is militarily necessary to enforce what we think is right on other countries."

    We didn't do much of that before the Second World War, either. (At least, not outside our own little patch of toy countries in the Caribbean, we didn't.)

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  3. "militarily necessary to enforce what we think is right on other countries.

    I feel very conflicted about this, because I don't think "we" know what is right. In fact, I think we're fairly ignorant on the whole matter as a country. Most Americans are too concerned with who is getting married, who is aborting, who is famous, to have a clear understanding of global politics.

    That said, I'm a Texan and general nuclear threats against Texas, warrant acknowledgement. I'm about as concerned about DPRK launching a nuke into the center of Texas as I am the sun going supernova tomorrow, but still...I get the feeling that Kim Jong Un needs a casual reminder that "Don't mess with Texas" isn't a phrase, but is rather a promissory note. If one messes with Texas, an ass whooping of epic proportions will be dealt out in a fashion unlike that seen since the Battle of Cannae.

    To that degree, I do feel like someone better drop Dear Leader a memo and let him know that we here in Texas are paying attention.

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  4. I think one of those phones is for the calls from Commissioner Gordon, one is for QVC and the other is the Incontinence Hotline (can you hold?)

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  5. "Emotional continence". Damn, what a turn of phrase.

    Um..."enforce what we think is right" is a damned dangerous expression, Oz.

    Personally, since the PRC's certainly not terrifically happy with crazies next door with nukes, the PRC and Red China should just agree to have the PRC and ROKs jointly pacify NK, then split the land mass so the PRC has a buffer zone, and the little glowing dictator is no longer an issue.

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  6. Sorry, meant ROK and Red China, not China with itself...

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  7. Are there three other people with phones in North Korea for him to call?

    Of course not silly.
    Phone 1 is to call phone 2 so you know what it sounds like if 3 would ever by chance, you know, actually ring.

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  8. JohninMd.(HELP!!)5:56 PM, March 31, 2013

    "Funeral pyres light up the night sky, While the people eat rats, and sawdust bread, and occaisionally, each other." Funny how that quote from 'Red Dawn' seems to fit day-to-day life in the 'Worker's Paradise' the Norks have built themselves. How does anyone DEAL with a country whose population is so tightly mind-controled?It's terribly ironic, the Communist Ideal, set in a charnel house....

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  9. They really DO NOT know how to actually interface with the world, and are about to back themselves into a corner. When they do, they will start throwing 'stuff' over the fence and try to hit anything within range... And we have 32,000 Americans in range...

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  10. On the telephone question, I recall reading sometime in the distant past about a non-western country where one's power and prestige were illustrated by how many different ministries/facilities needed to have hotlines from your desk. So if you wanted to appear important, you had lots of telephone instruments installed, needed or not.
    Having only one telephone would not befit a great leader...

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  11. Seems to me, there are basically two forms of government: the Competence Model, and the Angry Model.

    The essence of the Competence Model is "OK mob; let's make a deal. You don't storm my palace and tear me limb from limb, and in return, I will provide reasonably functional leadership and successful outcomes."

    The development of representative constitutional government was a relatively minor modification, where the leaders face "voted out of office" rather than "torn limb from limb." Still basically the same old Competence Model, but with this one minor change.

    The Angry Model is more like "My leadership will not be functional, and we will not have successful outcomes. However, I will do a masterful job of keeping you frothing with hatred against that other, larger, more successful country."

    All through the Cold War, we were facing an opponent who was trying, but failing, at the Competence Model. Bad as the Soviets were, they recognized that toasting half their country would not be good politics for them.

    I'm not sure Angry Leadership sees those same dynamics. In certain circumstances, having half the country glassed over, and the other half subject to radiation sickness, could actually help keep the froth whipped up. Even if not to that extreme, economic ruin and starvation for your people can work to the advantage of Angry Leadership so long as they can convince their people it's all somebody else's fault.

    Being an impoverished pariah nation seems to work for the Kim family. I don't think they're crazy at all. They've got a system that works.

    Alath
    Carmel IN

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  12. Communism, like Fascism, is a "gift society," where the maximum leader buys loyalty with potlatches, attractive women, and wealth. In countries with inherent wealth, the regime murders large numbers of people to get the wealth that supports the Party or Partei.

    As a gift society North Korea has long since murdered the "wealthy," and with few other resources. Like many of history's worst rulers, the Kim's have remained in power by saber rattling, essentially blackmailing other countries into providing the gifts that maintain the society.

    As long as the Kim's can present a credible threat, the Kim dynasty will stay in power. Studiously ignore them and the Kim's will fall. Although they will not go out without doing as much more damage as possible to their own people.

    Stranger

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  13. Rob - I'm pretty sure "Don't Mess With Texas" is actually an anti-littering campaign.

    That said, from all reports if you're going to bomb it, Austin would be the right part...

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  14. You know, the chimpanzee didn't hold the weapon sideways when he fired it.

    That's just what I saw in the video. Can't think of a joke to go with it.

    Mike James

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  15. Only you, Tam, would draw a parallel between Norks with nukes and that ape with an AK-47 clip, and manage to capture the ridiculousness and danger of the whole mess, with a dash of disdain thrown in.

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  16. You mean AK47 MAGA---sorry, reflex action.

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  17. Lazy Bike Commuter,

    As a citizen of the city of Austin and actually a happy, well-armed, and independent, Austinite...I kind of feel that we will have to disagree on the bombing part. It's quite nice here, you should try it sometime.

    Yes it might be the, ~gasp~ liberal portion of Texas, but having come from the non-liberal part of Texas, I rather like Austin, because it's got its wookie-suit on. Here, everyone minds their own damn business. We just want to eat some BBQ, watch the Longhorns play on Saturdays in the fall, listen to music, and swim in a spring fed pool in the summer.

    Sorry, I don't particularly find the idea of some despot little dictator rattling his nuclear saber in my general direction. I find it even less appealing that my own countrymen seem to agree based on some random stereotypes.

    -Rob

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  18. I know what you mean about "profoundly autistic", Ma'am.

    Rory Miller, who keeps the blog "Chiron Training", has a coupla officially dxed autistic offspring, and is somewhat strange himself.

    The first post I ever read on his blog was about a policeman meeting an autie on the street who was much as you described. Rory pointed out that an autie, without the least malice, might decide to pluck out your eyeball because it's pretty and he'd like to play with it, with no idea that you are a fellow human who might not like that.

    Yes, as I have written here and elsewhere, I think I m'self have a slight touch of the "A". I do believe a little of it is good for you, but a lot? Well, OMG.

    To get back on topic: It seems like the Norks are deliberately messing with the minds of their people to make them into the public's worst nightmare about the crazy autistic guy, but for real.

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  19. "'the will to do what is militarily necessary to enforce what we think is right on other countries.'

    "We didn't do much of that before the Second World War, either. (At least, not outside our own little patch of toy countries in the Caribbean, we didn't.)"

    And the Philippines; and the countries *bordering* the Caribbean. United Fruit Company springs to mind.

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  20. That said, I'm a Texan and general nuclear threats against Texas, warrant acknowledgement.

    Simple. Convince Sung his newest bff, Dennis Rodman, lives there. He'll point the missles at my state (AK) instead. Not that anybody is seriously concerned they'd make it off the launch pad.

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  21. "It's terribly ironic, the Communist Ideal, set in a charnel house...."

    5:56 PM, March 31, 2013


    What attempted Communist system has not ended with that as a setting? Seems they always end up with lotsa folks murdered behind wire and walls.....

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  22. Brigid's on the right track, though clearly one line is his private line for friends like Dennis Rodman to give him a call.

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  23. Tam and Justthisguy,

    Speaking as an Aspie* myself, who knows** and works with many other Aspies, I can tell you that even profoundly autistic people are extremely unlikely to try to grab your eyeball from its socket.

    Sometimes we indeed say and do things others find unsettling, such as bringing up X-rated topics with someone we've just met, standing way too close, not taking hints and the like. But people on the autism spectrum, as a group, are much more likely than average to suffer violence, not inflict it.

    Kim Jong-un does indeed have problems, but they have nothing to do with autism. (Indeed, I suspect his pathologies are at least as political as psychological, if not more so.)

    [*] Short for Asperger Syndrome, the term "Aspie" refers to someone on the autism spectrum.

    [**] And is acquainted with Rory Miller, btw.

    Cheers,

    Jeff Deutsch

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  24. Apparently, their missiles can't quite reach Houston.

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  25. Jeffrey Deutsch,

    Another thing that Aspies do is launch rambling inappropriate soliloquies where they conflate their mild social ineptitude with the profound mental disability to which I referred.

    Cheers!
    Tam

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  26. "We didn't do much of that before the Second World War, either."

    Clearly you have blotted 1917-1922 from your memory.

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  27. I ended up in a "conversation" with someone friday night about this whole gig. Her position was just just bomb the fuck out of the place.

    I kinda feel like the North Korean citizenry are just as much victims as anyone of the North Korean leadership, and probably moreso. It seems unfair to bomb them for having had the misfortune of having been born into slavery.

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  28. While I am concerned about the posturing coming out of that particular corner of the world, I do feel compelled that the "missiles" they are planning on equipping with nuclear warheads are built by the same "engineers" that brought us the Hyundai Excel...

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  29. Good morning Tam,

    As I specified, "even profoundly autistic people are extremely unlikely to try to grab your eyeball from its socket." [Emphasis added.]

    When you imply that autism helps cause violence, You:Autism spectrum disorders::Sarah Brady:Gun violence.

    Better to focus on physical/military power, emotional (in)continence and probably more than a dash of sociopathy for good measure.

    Cheers!

    Jeff Deutsch

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  30. > I can't get this picture out of my head.

    These videos of DEA agents never cease to amuse.



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  31. Unfair comparison. The chimp didn't shoot himself in the leg.

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  32. "Another thing that Aspies do is launch rambling inappropriate soliloquies where they conflate their mild social ineptitude with the profound mental disability to which I referred."

    ( tries to resist urge to burst into soliloquy, again ... must choke Captain Exposition ... )

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  33. Oz: Look up "Madisonians and Jacksonians".

    The Jacksonians don't get to call the shots until some 'tard makes the mistake of attacking us.

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  34. If you read the history of 1950, you'll find that North Korea gave ample notice of what they intended to do. And when the US Secretary of State did NOT include South Korea within the perimeter of places we would fight to defend, the invasion of June 25, 1950 was a foregone conclusion.

    Our military today is not in the same weak position as it was in early June 1950 — Louis Johnson (Def Sec) had cut the forces down drastically and the 8th Army in Japan consisted of soft occupation troops — but the parallels are disturbing.

    The Norks rolled south destroying South Korea as they went until they were (barely) stopped outside the Pusan perimeter. If we had to field a large force to stop the Norks, we'd be very hard pressed to do it.

    As an interesting exercise, look at a map and then dig up newspaper headlines from the period via google.

    And keep in mind that after the first weeks, we had air superiority everywhere — and it was still one very tough fight.

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  35. [Same Anon as 3:47 PM just above]

    The reason the Norks are still a problem today is that Truman and his administration refused to take the new-founded United Nations seriously. He used the UN to give cover for our intervening to stop the Norks. But then he flinched at what membership in the UN really called for.

    It's this: If the UN charter means anything, when one country invades another, the invader's government loses all legitimacy by its action, and the regime becomes an outlaw. As such, it cannot be allowed to survive, if the stated goals of the UN are to be upheld.

    In the case of Korea in 1950-53, this meant that pulling our punches was unacceptable according to the UN's own charter.

    So what should Truman et al. have done? Recognized the situation and followed either of two courses.

    The first would be to use all available weapons (including nuclear and poison gas if tactically needed) to destroy the Nork regime. And the action should have been taken promptly to decide the issue before China or the Soviet Union could send adequate aid (as they did), allowing the Northern regime to fight on.

    The second option would be to walk away from the UN, and expel the organization from US territory.

    In light of what an international joke the organization has become, I think following the second option would have been wisest.

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  36. I'm not sure what's worse about the fact that I can't stop thinking about the current Kim as The Uncola, the seriousness of the situation or the datedness of the reference.

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  37. One is the communist party line.

    Lot's of fire power on the NorKs sign of the line. You may get rid of some of it in a day or two but your not driving around or through it like the Middle East for weeks.

    Look at landing beaches to break the dead lock.

    Gerry

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  38. There was an island off Spanish Florida occupied by pirates.

    After repeated protests to Spain, Andrew Jackson (General) attacked and took it over. The pirates were killed. He said if Spain sent forces sufficient to prevent reoccupation, he would withdraw.

    Congress reduced the number of US generals after that from 2 to 1. Jackson was the less senior.

    He ran for president after that.

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  39. Gerry, Inchon still has its 30-foot tides....

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  40. Want to really screw with the NORKS? Nuke South Korea. Slag it, melt it, make it glow. With that demonstration of firepower and no where to go the NORKS will chill out and shut up. It will be a little hard on the ROKs, but they will get over it.

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  41. You wanna know what I wonder about? I wonder if Tam's OK when she goes 24+ hours without a post.

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  42. AFAIK, the all-time best resource on the Korean War is this.

    Besides the subtitle -- which is amply borne out by the facts -- we see a very interesting (and IMHO true) perspective: one of war as policy. In other words, Korea was fought to hold back the dragons, not to try to go down into their lairs and kill them.

    China and the Soviet Union (both of which bordered North Korea) were way too big to defeat on their own borders. The argument goes that the best we could do was keep South Korea independent and show we would stand by our allies, and thus both deter and contain the Communist giants.

    One thing I learned there and nowhere else: Beijing gave us a fair heads-up that if U.N. (not just Korean) troops crossed into North Korea, the Chinese would intervene. That warning was not taken seriously enough.

    Yes, idealistically we would want to eliminate any aggressor regime, especially an evil one (not quite the same thing). In the real world we need to take certain other things into consideration...including who borders our would-be mortal enemy and how they might feel about our eliminating said enemy.

    (That's also why Jimmy Carter behaved much more circumspectly toward the newly radical Iran than many Americans wanted. Remember who bordered Iran...and actually had a treaty with Iran giving them the right to intervene in case of a third-party invasion?)

    Jeff Deutsch

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  43. Jeffrey Deutsch,

    "When you imply that autism helps cause violence..."

    No, I implied that profound autism, which you do not suffer from as amply evinced by your complete sentences, can cause unpredictability which can lead to unanticipated violence. The temper tantrum thrown by a three year old is much more serious when that three year old is 6'4" and 240.

    I am absolutely over the prevalence on the internet of people with self-diagnosed social awkwardness wrapping themselves in the mantle of the profoundly disabled.

    I've known adult people with severe autism (or, rather, I've known their caregivers.) Seeing people like you claiming to be kindred with people like Mr. X's son is like seeing someone with a stubbed toe trying to use a handicapped parking spot meant for paraplegics.

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  44. I think it would be a massive mistake to assume the Norks were all incompetent. In an environment where failure results in death you have an odd sort of Darwinism in play. The evidence is that they are much closer to being a real threat than just a PFM. Check out this article, really scary.

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/12/north_koreas_big_bang?wp_login_redirect=0

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  45. It's like he said a PDRK with nuclear-tipped missiles is really scary. I should write a blog post about that!

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  46. You should. I bet it would be really interesting. I might even make some obvious comment on it.

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  47. Hey, I thought I had the Captain Obvious and Captain Exposition slots reserved?

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  48. Hello Tam,

    (1) How exactly is implying that X can cause Y which can lead to Z different from implying that X can help cause Z?

    (2) No, autistic people are not 100% goody-two-shoes, any more than anyone else. You can certainly find autistic individuals whose autism contributed to their social alienation, poor judgment and the like.

    (In fact, Spectrum quoted me as saying that John Odgren, an Aspie who murdered a classmate, should be held fully responsible of course.)

    And then you can find many more autists whose autism played a role in, if not outright caused, their being bullied, beaten, raped and even murdered. Including by their own parents.

    So no, autism doesn't cause violence any more than, say, guns cause crime.

    (3) Which self-diagnosed people are you talking about? I was diagnosed by a social worker and a psychiatrist...as I would have gladly explained upon request.

    (4) What kind of "mantle" are you talking about? Do you think I'm not able to defend people different from myself?

    (5) What in heck does a handicapped parking space have to do with anything? Do you feel that dispelling a stereotype is some kind of privilege, exclusive to people in that group?

    Clearly, at least one of us is seriously misunderstanding the other. This is my last comment on the subject. Anyone who wants to discuss this with me further, feel free to drop me a line!

    Good night, and have a pleasant tomorrow!

    Jeff Deutsch

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  49. Jeffrey,

    If you don't see a difference between "have a poor sense of decorum and tend to rambling, bullet-point-laden tendentious arguments in other people's comments sections" and "have a vocabulary that consists of grunts, hoots, and moans and tend to become agitated and lash out physically in response to raised voices or emotions in their vicinity" and in fact believe yourself to be part of the same support group, and have heard my already clearly expressed views on the topic, then do you really think that this conversation is serving any point?

    I plan on having an excellent tomorrow. Likewise, yourself!

    -T.

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  50. Umm? Jeff? Tam? The "A" comes in degrees. Some of us are just slightly strange, thankyouverrimuch, and some are horribly fucked up.

    I think that Our Tam might be slightly strange, possibly even more so than I am.

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  51. "The temper tantrum thown by a three-year-old..."

    That reminds me of a story. I used to correspond with a lot of autistic people on the Web. I remember reading an account about a convention of auties someplace in Canada.

    The gal who wrote the account was upset, because she was acting so normal that the other auties didn't believe she was autistic.

    She got hoppin' mad, so to speak, and was all "I am too autistic!"

    She pointed out that when she was two years old, she disassembled her crib and every other piece of furniture in the room, using no tools but fingernails and teeth. (Stacked the pieces up artistically, too)

    When she was three years old, she socked her baby-sitter so hard in the mouth as to knock out most of the baby-sitter's teeth. She still feels bad about that.

    So, yeah, auties are not as other men, or women.

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