Glub.

Iranian navy vessels at Bandar Abbas are looking a little worse for wear.

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Monday Morning Memes!

Epistemic Crackup

The universality of always-on broadband internet connections in our pockets really kicked off an experiment in Epistemological Choose Your Own Adventure and, friends, it's not going swimmingly.

The proliferation of AI-generated imagery and video has absolutely turbocharged it. Social media was awash by yesterday afternoon in AI videos of varying quality claiming to show a burning USS Abraham Lincoln sinking. (You know, the one the Houthis claimed they sank last year.)

Can't wait to run into the CVN-72 Truthers in the wild later this year who claim that the Iranians actually sank the Lincoln and the Deep State is covering it up.

War News...

• Three F-15E Strike Eagles got engaged by friendly SAMs over Kuwait, according to CENTCOM. All the Mudhen crews ejected safely.


• In Congressional briefings, administration officials contradict the narrative that we had intel that Iran was preparing a strike Epic Fury was preemptive.


• Dwindling weapons stockpiles could hamper operations.


• Oil prices rising, gas prices will inevitably follow.

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Tab Clearing...

• CENTCOM denies IRGC claims about striking the USS Abraham Lincoln with four ballistic missiles, saying they didn't even come close.


• "This war brought to you by Draftkings Sportsbook..."


• Maersk avoiding shipping routes in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf less than a month after resuming normal Suez traffic.

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QotD: Moderate Killbot Edition...

Scott Alexander at Astral Codex Ten on the Anthropic v. DoD slap fight...

Needless to say, I support Anthropic here. I’m a sensible moderate on the killbot issue (we’ll probably get them eventually, and I doubt they’ll make things much worse compared to AI “only” having unfettered access to every Internet-enabled computer in the world). But AI-enabled mass surveillance of US citizens seems like the sort of thing we should at least have a chance to think over, rather than demanding it from the get-go.

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LOL. Also, LMAO.

Seems Tucker Carlson is big mad.

Carlson, a long-time Trump supporter, said the attack on Iran is "absolutely disgusting and evil." He also suggested it will have a significant effect on Trump's political movement, saying, "This is going to shuffle the deck in a profound way."

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Strange Timing Explained

A lot of assets were still moving into theater, dependents hadn't been evacuated from Naval Support Activity Bahrain and other facilities that were within an easy chip shot of Iranian Fateh launchers across the Gulf, and the attacks were launched in broad daylight... this was obviously something launched on the fly rather than a preplanned zero hour.

Via Matthew Ford, author of War in the Smartphone Age and other books, the Israelis had, in addition to having hacked one of the most popular apps in Iran, gotten intel that Khamenei and other high-ranking Iranian government officials would be meeting in a specific place at a specific time, so that's why the snap launch of a decapitation strike.

EDIT: According to an NYT piece, CIA's trying to claim credit for the intel.

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Meme Dump!

His loss is no loss...

One of the most clear cut cases of misdemeanor murder I've seen in a while. The world's a better place without the decedent in it.

Iran has, of course, vowed retaliation, but their conventional options are pretty slim. Boy, what a time to have gutted our domestic counterintelligence and counterterrorism establishments and re-tasked a huge chunk of federal LEOs to chasing down roofers and hotel housekeepers in Bumfuck, Iowa.

Desultory missile tag continues across the Persian Gulf, a mob tried to storm the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, and Oman reports a tanker was hit off their coast in the Strait of Hormuz.

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