Monday, February 13, 2023

That would be bad.

The last year has brought Pakistan to the brink. A series of rolling disasters — including catastrophic flooding, political paralysis, exploding inflation, and a resurgent terror threat — now risk sending a key, if troubled, global player into full-blown crisis. If the worst comes to pass, as some experts warn, the catastrophe unfolding in Pakistan will have consequences far beyond its borders.

“This is a country of 220 million people, with nuclear weapons and serious internal conflicts and divisions,” said Uzair Younus, the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. “The world didn’t like the outflows of refugees and weapons that came from countries like Syria and Libya. In comparison, Pakistan is magnitudes larger and more consequential.”
Of all the countries I wouldn't want to see collapse into civil disorder à la Syria or Libya right now, yeah, Pakistan is close to the top of the list. 

It would destabilize more than just the immediate region, and the worst part is there's not much anybody outside the country can do to prevent it.

I mean where would the refugees even go? Two borders...India and Afghanistan...are out of the question, and that leaves Iran, which is teetering on the brink of outright civil war itself. It wouldn't take much of a push to kick that one off for realsies. And India would probably see that as their cue to firm up their position in Kashmir...

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