Thom Hogan is rattling people's cages again...
"I'm going to put a stake in the ground and predict ILC volume will be 4m units in 2023. It's possible that isn't the bottom, that we go all the way down to 3m units. It's possible that 2023 isn't the bottom year. However, market size is such an existential problem at Canon, Nikon, and Sony that they're going to have to find a way to keep the market from slipping below 4m units. That means that they have to embrace the 21st century with their products and start attracting younger users again. I believe that's possible, but I also don't see clear signs that any camera company has figured this out. (Sure, the average buying age of a Sony purchaser is lower than that of the average Nikon purchaser at this point, but that age is still in the Gen X/Boomer realm. They're not making any more of those models ;~)."
I don't see a ton to disagree with in his conclusions.
Parenthetically, I wonder if Panasonic's efforts in the video realm plus Olympus's attempt to transition Micro 4/3 into a premium sports/air show/birdwatching system with the E-M1X will be enough to save the format. Big box stores will sell you the bottom-tier Canon and Nikon DSLRs, but if you look around at Target or Best Buy, you could be forgiven for thinking that the only mirrorless ILC system was the crop-sensor a6xxx system from Sony.
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