SayUncle mentioned the rising cost of 7.62x39mm ammo, and offered an explanation.
While the order of a bazillion rounds of 7.62 for the Afghanis might mean the supply of commercial Wolf/Barnaul ammo remains scarce, it doesn't account for the fact that it has been scarce for almost a year now, and that the scarcity of imported Russkie 7.62x39 is not necessarily directly linked to the price of its domestic alternatives.
Here's a typical conversation I have with a supplier:
Me: "Get any Wolf 7.62x39 in yet?"
M: "Okay, what's the next cheapest thing you have? PMC? Got any of that?"
W: "Nope, we ran out of that, and we won't be getting any more, now that PMC is out of business."
M: "Crap. Okay, what's the next cheapest? Winchester Q3174? American Eagle?"
W: "All I have left is a couple of cases of American Eagle."
M: "I guess I'll have to take it, then."
Thing is, the domestic companies never loaded all that much 7.62x39, since most shooters simply burned up cheap imported Wolf by the case. Then Venezuela bought 100,000 AK's and the ammo to feed them last summer, and that dried up the Russian ammo flow like somebody turned off a tap; the domestic production never really caught up to the increasing demand. If this Afghan contract happens, it'll be another long drought until we see more cheap imported ammo. 'Til then it's going to be brass-cased domestic stuff or nothing, and with metals prices and fuel costs both up, ammo is more expensive than ever. I've seen two or three price hikes from every manufacturer and distributor since last October, with some brands and calibers going up by as much as 20%. Of course, this affects all ammo, not just 7.62x39mm. Combine that with the shortage of Winchester .22 ammo caused by Winchester moving rimfire production to a new facility in Arkansas, and you have a recipe for scarcity and high prices all across the ammunition landscape.
Hoard you some ammo today. :)