Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Speaking of destabilized countries with nukes...

So apparently Gazprom is joining Wagner and the Chechens in having a semi-autonomous armed force that reports directly to Tsar Vladimir rather than through the regular military chain of command.

As the linked article points out having competing centers of power is a classic balancing act for authoritarian regimes. Also, from the Caesar's Praetorians to Hitler's SS to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran's mullahs, having an armed force that answers directly to the Maximum Leader rather than potentially uppity generals is a longstanding tradition.

But...and it's a pretty big "but", like, Sir Mix-A-Lot big...
"So what if Putin falls? Eventually, one way or another, Putin will no longer be president of Russia. Autocratic regimes are notably unstable at times of leadership transition, and it won’t be fun to have lots of different groups with guns vying for control—a scenario that could resemble the plot of Crimson Tide.

It’s hard to tell, though, who would want to be in charge of Russia’s nukes in the chaos that will follow after Putin has died or been deposed. Even if some warring faction other than the Ministry of Defense were to somehow secure all of Russia’s nuclear weapons—in submarines, at air bases, in missile silos, on road-mobile launchers, and in storage—and the command-and-control systems to launch them, what would that faction stand to gain? The expense involved in supporting that nuclear infrastructure is enormous, and it’s not clear how they could be used against domestic political opponents, anyway. It’s very hard—though not altogether impossible—to imagine a situation in which anyone but the Ministry of Defense would have both the capability to use the country’s nuclear weapons and a motive to do so. The prospect of pieces of Russia’s nuclear arsenal being sold off appears only slightly more realistic. Of course, there’s always the unexpected. Authoritarian regimes are most unstable when their leadership changes, and the potential for catastrophe after Putin is disconcerting.
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