History can happen fast.

So Prigozhin has had all charges dropped in return for hieing himself off to exile in Belarus, with Lukashenko apparently vouching for his future good behavior.

Well, it looks like the ex-hot dog vendor-cum-mercenary commander has a future life of indeterminate length that will involve wearing gloves to open doors, staying on the ground floor of buildings, and wanding his tea with a geiger counter before drinking.

Meanwhile:

I find students often struggle to understand how centralized power in post-Roman Europe could fragment so badly.

But ask yourself: if you are a Russian oligarch right now, what lesson did you just learn about the value of having your own private army?

— Bret Devereaux (@BretDevereaux) June 24, 2023

There's been a lot of renewed attention on what would happen if the world's largest accumulator of strategic nuclear warheads should slide into civil war or splinter into a bunch of rump states.

Thing is, it's already happened once, so we have a partial roadmap of what it might look like.

There's one big difference between Then and Now, however.

Back when the Soviet Union broke apart, deals were cut with former Soviet republics to turn their nuclear weapons over to Russia, aided by promises of security and territorial integrity backed by both Russia and the USA.

Now, after events in Ukraine and Georgia and Moldova, do you think some hypothetical future Republic of Karelia or Free State of Primorsky are going to turn over any nukes to some rump Rus in Moscow, no matter who pinkie swears to do what? Fat frickin' chance. If there's one thing that recent history has taught everyone, it's that nukes mean people won't mess with you.