There are apparently a lot more Rondroids out there than most punditry would suggest. Out of 131,776 voters identifying as Republican in AOL's latest straw poll, over 42k picked the Congressman from TX; more than those who voted for Giuliani and Huckabee combined.
I think some professional prognosticators may have a bit of egg on their face after the NH primaries. That state is cranky libertarian country, and the folks most likely to vote for Paul are also the ones most likely to answer a phone call that begins "Hi! I'm from XYZ Service, and we're taking a poll on..." with a click and a dial tone.