Monday, May 15, 2023

Turkey Surprise

It looks like Erdogan had a slight lead over the second place candidate, but likely missed the required majority to win, so it's looking like it's going to a runoff in two weeks.

This is generally bad news for incumbents because the third-place finisher's supporters are usually voting for "Not the Status Quo" and, having been president since 2014 and prime minister for nearly a dozen years before that, Erdogan is as status quo as they come.

The wild card here is that the third place finisher is a turbo nationalist dude whose main campaign plank seems to have been based on sending Syrians back to Syria. (Syria is, effectively, Turkey's Mexico.) It remains to be seen which way he'd urge his supporters to vote in a runoff.