Saturday, March 08, 2014

"She is the champion and vindicator only of her own."

I've heard complaining that we were going to do nothing in Crimea.

Personally? I sure hope the complainers are right.

There's not much we can do. Certainly almost nothing without EU/NATO backing, and you can get great waffles in Brussels. I mean, London's entangled financially; Paris and Moscow have been seen holding hands under the table a lot over the last few years; and I could be wrong, but I doubt that de-nuclearized Germany is willing to shiver through the winters without Russian gas just to make a point.

If Putin wants to carve off Crimea and leave a Finlandized rump Ukraine, then that's what's gonna happen after all the posturing is said and done. Unless you're willing to go toe-to-toe with the Russkies over murky party politics in a country where we have no real national interests.

A lot of people have pointed out that it's a little hypocritical of the U.S. to get on our high horse about invading other countries, to which my rebuttal is that our invasions were classic models of Wilsonian post-war geopolitics: Soul-searching, consensus-building, going hat-in-hand to the League of Nations for resolutions. If Putin had done that, we'd still be stalling him in the Security Council and demanding to see the yellowcake.

Russia, on the other hand, is playing here by the rules of geopolitics as they have been since the founding of the first nation-state: Putin saw something within his sphere of influence that he felt was in his national interest, and he used troops to effect that interest with no more concern for what the neighbors might think than Queen Victoria would have felt.

My biggest worry right now is that all these dithering half-measures with lone destroyers and partial squadrons are ramping up the possibilities for an accidental incident with no real upside for us. We'd feel real stupid blundering into WWIII because imaginary patrol boats shot at the Truxton.

Die ganze Ukraine ist nicht die Knochen eines einzigen Alabaman Grenadier.
.

32 comments:

The Old Man said...

As I read a few days ago in a blog I don't remember -
We have the same strategic interest in the Crimean Peninsula as Vlad and Company has in the province of Quebec. And the same ability to influence it.

Wyfaggro said...

About the only thing we could do at this point that Vlad might care about is to invade Cuba and Venezuela in response. Yeah, I'll hold my breath till that happens...

Anonymous said...

Lots of water under the bridge since Bismarck's Balkan epitaph. Remains wisdom today.

DrBaboon

og said...

Alabama, no. But I'd be happy to send them a couple hundred thousand politicians.

Joel said...

We'd feel real stupid blundering into WWIII because imaginary patrol boats shot at the Truxton.

You and I might. Alas, that's often what passes for cleverness in the hallowed halls of DC.

Steve C said...

Politics and logistics say there is not much we can do about Ukraine. We could take out our frustration on Putin's buddy in Syria and deni Russia a warm water port in the Med.

Rob K said...

Considering that Crimea was part of Russia until 1954 when Khrushchev (a Ukranian) transferred it to Ukraine, it's hard to get too worked up about it...

Anonymous said...

Norway kicks Belgium's butt in the waffle department.

- Drifter

Anonymous said...

There is always a certain group for whom foreign policy is always and simply a matter of proving that our organ is bigger than their organ, and who wouldn't actually mind having WWIII.

For the rest of us, just remember in which war the Light Brigade charged.

Kishnevi

JimB said...

I'm waiting to see what happens when Putin decides that Russia would like to have Alaska back. After all that once belonged to Russia too....

Quirel said...

"...but I doubt that de-nuclearized Germany is willing to shiver through the winters..."

The first thing that popped into my head was "But surely they'd bring winter coats this time around." Goes to show where my mind is today.

RKN said...

A lot of people have pointed out that it's a little hypocritical of the U.S. to get on our high horse about invading other countries, to which my rebuttal is that our invasions were classic models of Wilsonian post-war geopolitics: Soul-searching [...]

Don't think we were searching for souls in Iraq, but rather WMDs, which were never found, at which point the mission changed to: Well, there's still a tyrant missing down a hole somewhere, surely finding and killing him and freeing the secular tribes to resume hating and killing each other justifies the cost to America. cue Bush-Cheney-Rice shuffle.

Ed said...

Still, it is better that Hagel does not mothball those A-10's too soon.

Tam said...

RKN,

Gosh, thank you for teaching me about all that stuff that happened before I was born. I wish I'd been alive then so I could have formed my own opinions. If I had, I may have slipped a crack about "yellowcake" into the sentence right after the one you partially quoted.

;)

RKN said...

I'm waiting to see what happens when Putin decides that Russia would like to have Alaska back.

That was a different Vlad.

Anonymous said...

Not much we can do to positively affect the Ukraine today.

But if the improvident politicians in the US, Europe, and NATO had any brains and foresight; we would make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil. Europe has promising shale reserves. They have a lot of lignite (closer to peat moss) coal, which can be burned without many emissions. (Except for the dreaded CO2 molecule) We both could rediscover nuclear power, and have to rebuild a lot of industrial infrastructure. (Punish people with good jobs!)

And we should be helping Japan, Taiwan, S Korea and Phillipines to discourage China on the other side of the world.

Otherwise this is starting to be disturbingly like the 1930's, down to the "prolonged recession" (or is it a depression?), frisky fascists, and craven democracies.

RKN said...

@Tam,

Didn't intend to come off sounding preachy, I never presumed you didn't know the relevant history. Just found the part of your comment I quoted to be a good spot to interject my own comment is all.

ASM826 said...

Some political voices, like Marco Rubio, are calling for the U.S. to act. It might sound good, but we will not. We cannot. The era of a powerful United States is past. So, this Russian expansion in eastern Europe? This is what after looks like. We are going to see a lot more of it.

Tam said...

ASM826,

Not sure there's much we could have done in '92, either.

A few hundred ICBMs says "Get off my lawn" a lot louder than any Garand.

Scott J said...

From what little I've seen on the tee wee it seems the people in Crimea want to be part of Russia.

So, let them have their will.

Now if we could just convince the blue states here to want to be part of Canada.

Marc Pisco said...

So far, NATO's been expanding into Russia's sphere of influence a lot faster than they've been expanding back. Not gonna lose a lot of sleep over a bunch of Russian-speaking Russians in a historic province of Russia being part of Russia again. Unless Deval Patrick follows Vlad's example and re-annexes Maine, then I'd be peeved. But how many divisions has Radcliffe? Zero. Not a big worry.

Also and anyhow, as you say, we might just as well tell the Great Red Spot on Jupiter to contract, for all anybody gives a damn what we think about it.

Kristophr said...

If Obama keeps trying to shut down the Kenai refineries, and make Alaskans pay $5/gallon for gas imported from Outside, they may voluntarily join the Russians.

global village idiot said...

Anyone who wants me to take seriously an opinion that we should "get tough" with Russia over this issue had better be able to produce a CURRENT DD Form 4, Commission/Warrant Certificate, Medical Statement of Ineligibility or Retirement packet.

If a person is unwilling to do his own fighting, he has scant standing to ask me and those like me to do it for him.

gvi

Lewis said...

Doesn't hurt to remember that US meddling provoked it, at least in significant part. Little Victoria Nuland's energetic efforts and the reputed five billion smackeroos.

Remember, elections were scheduled for 2015 and there wasn't any real evidence that they wouldn't take place. Sure, Big (Stolen, Oligarch) Money was going to talk loud during the election, but that's pretty much par for the course. Now Princess Leia---or Evita----is out and scrambling for her share of the pie as well.

As a child of the Cold War, it amazes me that in 2014 we're making rumbly war type noises at Russia over a combination of teh gheys and Crimea. (We didn't go to war when the Russians rolled into Budapest in '56 or Prague in '68, but we're getting huffy about Crimea today?)

Oh, and yeah, Pooty-Poot is just "this close" to snapping up Alaska again, and Poland, and the Czech Republic, and Slovakia! JUST THIS CLOSE! He's a revanchist irredentist, or is that an irredentist revanchist?

The important thing is that we hate Russians, the details don't really matter.

(Grump, grump.)

Richard said...

Scott J-

"Now if we could just convince the blue states here to want to be part of Canada."

What did the Canadians ever do to you? Perhaps a trade of blue states for Western/Central Canada would be better for all.

Kristophr said...

Richard:

That would work. Get Eastern Canada, Los Angeles, Chicago, and the Boston-Washington corridor to secede from Canada and the US.

Then declare war on them and start carpet bombing.

Kristophr said...

I would like to see Putin just buy it, and recreate the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. Ukraine owes various banks about 34 Billion dollars ... maybe the Russian Federation can buy that up and burn it in return for land?

The Tatars who used to live there have more of a right to this space than the Ukrainians, who have never lived there at all.

Boat Guy said...

Those of us of a maritime bent look at the Black Sea as one looks at a cul-de-sac at the end of a very deep and narrow canyon - as in greatly preferring to see it from the outside rather than anywhere else.
Vaya con Dios Truxtun...glad I'm not aboard her.

Knox said...

I think that you forgot the word "wert" on the end of that Bismark quote. :)))

Anonymous said...

Other than a freer-er country moving hopefully to more freedom and prosperity and interst in the West we don't have any strategic interest in the Ukrain that is worth fighting over.

But, the things that could have been done to prevent this were all in the past and they were either not done by Obama (ie putting the missiles in Poland and Checko, and going all Reagan on a defense build-up) or done by Obama (the famous 're-set' and the ridiculus arms control treaty).

This prez has never sided with freedom anywhere in the world or failed to act against the US national interest when presented with the choice (including the failure to get out of Afgan sooner).

All in all a sterling record of damage un-matched by any enemy of America. Evah.

Scout26 said...

Didn't we see this movie once before in the 1850's. IIRC, we were smart enough to stay the hell out that one.

Beaumont said...

Lewis, I visited an irredentist once, but all he did was mock my fillings.