Saturday, May 10, 2014

Occam Airways

Over at Instapundit, Glenn Elizabeth Price Foley writes:
"Read the whole thing. I personally believe Lt. General Thomas McInerney, who has claimed he has intelligence sources that have confirmed the plane landed in Pakistan."
The dude in question is quoted as saying:
"I do believe that those people in Pakistan, in the ISI, those people who knew where Osama Bin Laden was and didn’t tell us. I believe those same elements could be involved with getting that airplane into a Pakistan air force base. "
I dunno about that, though. I mean, if the ISI wanted to get a 777 onto a Pakistani air force base, they could practically taxi one there from Jinnah International, which is right down the road from the nearest air force base. And they wouldn't even need to 'jack one when they've already bought eight, leased a ninth, and have five more on order at Boeing.


Larry said...

Actually, that wasn't Glenn, it was Elizabeth Price Foley, one of the guest bloggers filling in for him.

Paul said...

Be that as it may, I doubt 370 is at the bottom of the ocean. We will see that plane again, once they get it cleaned up.

Windy Wilson said...

There you go again, using reason and logic when thinking about current events.
Occam's razor has cut the throats of countless spy films, including the last 21 James Bond films.

Windy Wilson said...

Of course, on the other hand Occam's Razor says that the simplest theory that explains ALL the observed data is the correct one.

Windy Wilson said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Angus McThag said...

What's next? Fire melts steel? Magic bullets weren't standard Bersaglieri issue?

Tam said...

Angus McThag,

What's next? Fire melts steel? Magic bullets weren't standard Bersaglieri issue?"

They're gonna pack this one with photocopies of Obama's birth certificate, since they'll be hotter than burning jet fuel. ;)

Will Brown said...

OTOH Tam, those 14 &&&'s you mention all trace directly back to Pakistan - and were acquired with Pakistan dinero too.

That contribution to the MH370 Official Conspiracy Theory aside, I do think the complete lack of any sightings of any of the passengers or crew (I have a hard time envisioning airplane thieves simultaneously being above a bit of personal enrichment through a ransom effort on the side) calls any such speculation into question. Then there is the reasonably valuable gear to be expected in the cargo hold to consider. I like a good campfire tale to liven up the nights dreams as much as anybody, but that's as far as I go on this one.

Tam said...


"OTOH Tam, those 14 &&&'s you mention all trace directly back to Pakistan - and were acquired with Pakistan dinero too."

Which is easier, though?

1) Convincingly saying "Oh, those Saudi/Syrian/Chechen/Whoevers stole our airplane!" or

2) Pakistan convincing its mortal foe to the south to look the other way while a boosted jumbo jet traversed their airspace at FL350?

Sendarius said...

Why would anybody need to look the other way?

Just file a flight plan to Perth, set the transponder appropriately, and go.

It's not as if anybody would actually track the plane with radar echoes or even visually.

If there is a record in the ATC system saying that there is a commercial flight heading from Karachi to Perth at xx:yy Zulu, squawking some-such-code, nobody will gainsay it.

I am not saying that I believe it, but rather that I simply don't have enough information to decide either way, and that I doubt I ever will.

Cincinnatus said...

The Malaysians have f'ed this up so much that I suspect no one will ever figure out where it went.

But there just does not seem to be any real evidence that it didn't fall into an ocean or jungle somewhere.

Al T. said...

IIRC, in the late 70's, a USAF B-52 disappeared on a routine training flight. Sometime in the 80's, couple of guys hunting noticed a bunch of metal at the base of a cliff. Turned out that was what happened to the missing B-52. Suspect it will be quite some time (if ever) before we figure this one out.

Steve Skubinna said...

I'm with Windy here, Occam strongly suggests that the plane is at the bottom of a large body of water.

Of course, my inner geek really really wants a Bond villain to be the true explanation. And if you've ever passed through the Indonesian Archipelago you know it's Supervillian Central. Just about every island is begging to be a secret lair. I expect the Indonesian government offers tax breaks to supervillians. Doctor Evil is over there, Captain Nemo has that one there, way off on the horizon you can just see Bill Gates' place...

So we need to focus our search there, not in the Indian Ocean.